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Cicchetti, editor; and M. Roe in press Language development in children with unilateral brain injury. In Handbook of Developmental Cognitive Neuroscience. Nelson, editor; and M. Child care history and kindergarten adjustment.

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American Journal of Psychiatry 7: Some implications of assuming continuous growth models. Journal of Experimental Education Swedish adoption studies in retrospect. Bock, editor; and J. However, despite this concern with peace, war remains the primary mechanism for change in realist theory, and realists have been surprisingly reluctant to explore the potential for peaceful change.

This chapter seeks to remedy this shortcoming by exploring how the logic s of realism may help to explain peaceful change. The intention is not to test realist hypotheses on peaceful change, but rather discuss what dynamics of peaceful change we see when we look through the realist lens cf. Smith ; Sterling-Folker I develop my argument in five steps.

First, I define what peaceful change is when looking through realist lenses. Second, I explain why realists should be concerned about peaceful change and explain why peaceful change has until now played a marginal role in realist analyses. Third, I challenge what is typically perceived as a mission impossible in structural realism arguing that even offensive realist logic leaves room for peaceful change and may explain why peaceful change is a useful strategy for power-maximising states.

Fourth, I take this argument further by exploring how increased interaction capacity has changed the power-calculus of interest maximising states, and fifth, in the last section before the conclusion, I explore how structural incentives interact with domestic politics.

What is Peaceful Change? In contrast, realists find that the prospects for peace are conditioned on the distribution of power, although they do not provide clear guidance as to which distribution will most effectively promote peace. Highly asymmetrical distributions of power such as bipolarity and unipolarity may underpin peace understood as the absence of war, because of the clarity of signals and information when there is little doubt on which actors are the strongest and there is little chance of challenging the most powerful states Waltz ; Hansen The balance of power, in bipolar and multipolar systems, has been viewed as a major source of peace in realist theory, because the actors in this system are expected to deter each other from attacking Doyle Realists have typically focused on violent means of change, i.

To the realist, peaceful change entails the use of strategies of diplomatic or economic statecraft. Diplomatic strategies for peaceful change include soft balancing, where states seek to restrain the action of other states by institutional and diplomatic means, taking advantage of information asymmetry and the ability to shift between and act outside institutional settings in order to amend or change the actions of other states but stopping short of using military means Paul International anarchy and power politics will remain inescapable features of international relations, because any policy-maker who refuses to obey the self-help logic of anarchy runs the risk of endangering the security or even survival of the state he or she represents.

As noted by Joseph Grieco: This understanding leaves only a limited role for peaceful change as a strategy or outcome softening, but not eradicating, power politics. Thus, foreign policy decision-makers may pursue strategies of peaceful change as a prudent way of promoting change and achieving a peace in accordance with their own values and interests, but with only limited impact on transforming the international system or the nature of international relations Gilpin Conflating Structure with Outcome There are two reasons why realists should be concerned with peaceful change.

First, a realist focus on interstate war as the primary mechanism of change seems increasingly out of synch with the empirical record. Moreover, the end of the Cold War in and the subsequent collapse of what had been one of the two dominant powers for the past 45 years, the Soviet Union, in did not trigger a great power war.

The loss reduced Russia to the size it had had until the successful expansion by Katharina the Great in the eighteenth century and cut off access to some of the most prosperous parts of what had previously been the Soviet Union Hansen, Toft and Wivel ; Wohlforth Likewise, in Europe, the reunification of Germany in was accepted by the other states in the region even though a united Germany had been a significant source of unrest and conflict on the continent in the first half of the twentieth century.

In essence, understanding peaceful change is important if we are to understand some of the most important trends and events in international relations over the past decades. Second, realists should be concerned with peaceful change because they have a potentially significant contribution to make. Realists remind us of the close relationship between power and politics and look for the impact of interests even when policies are couched in the language of peace, prosperity and freedom Mearsheimer For this reason, realists are well positioned to provide a critical perspective on liberal and constructivist explanations on peaceful change.

In addition, as I will argue below, there is nothing in the realist logic that prevents realists from making a real contribution to understanding peaceful change, and, in particular, the conditions for peaceful change. But if realism has potentially a lot to say about peaceful change, then why have realists told us so little? This blind spot stems from an unfortunate dichotomising of potential international realms into existing anarchy and utopian hierarchy.

To be sure, a distinction between international anarchy and domestic politics is a useful and necessary assumption of realist theorising on international relations. However, the structural realist stylised account of international relations as not only a state of nature but a constant state of emergency to be contrasted with rule-governed domestic politics has important, and unnecessary, consequences for the ability of realism to comprehend peaceful change.

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However, as classical realists continuously reminded us, and as neoclassical realists are increasingly aware, there is considerable variation in the clarity and severity of security threats see e. Wolfers ; Ripsman, Taliaferro and Lobell At the same time, domestic change is often the result of developments unrelated to government regulation e. These changes are, as observed by Carr, by themselves the result of power politics.

They typically result from bargaining among parties, and they are achieved in the shadow of threats perceived to be more costly or dangerous than peacefully agreeing to change, and in that sense similar to peaceful international change often agreed in the shadow of an implicit or explicit threat of war Carr Thus, whereas structure is important for outcome in realist theory, we should not conflate structure with outcome: In domestic politics, the spread of liberal democracy and the rule of law have created mechanisms for change such as parliamentary and presidential elections and secured a regulated use of tools for change such as strikes and political protest.

The effect is fewer and less effective checks on the use of violence as a tool for change than in the domestic realm. To structural realists, anarchy, understood as the absence of a legitimate monopoly of violence, explains the recurrence of war in international relations. The offensive realist variant of structural realism views state behaviour as a rational response to structural incentives Mearsheimer Security seeking states will seek to accumulate power as power deters other states from attacking or dominating them in international anarchy.

Power is conceptualised as latent power, composed of societal resources, most importantly population and wealth, underpinning military power, which is viewed as the final arbiter in the anarchic international system.

Rational states will seek to minimise their own costs and incur costs on other states. For this reason, great powers tend to pass the buck, rather than balance, when confronted with a rising power in order to avoid spending on deterring the rising power themselves and potentially weaken rivalling states that spend the costs necessary for deterring the rising power.

The most powerful state in the system is also the most secure state as power deters other states from attacking and threatening its survival Mearsheimer However, global hegemony is practically unattainable and the competition between states attempting to gain power at the expense of others is therefore endemic: Paradoxically, offensive realism allows us to explain why this competition for domination rarely leads to war. States, according to the theory, do not lust for war, but rationally aim to increase their power in the most cost-effective way.

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If they do not succeed, they risk their survival. Following this line of logic, we will expect states to prefer strategies that allow them to maximise power on the cheap over costly strategies, and accordingly to prefer peaceful change in their favour over war, which is likely to be costly and to endanger the long-term survival of the state. As predicted by the logic of the theory but not by its main proponent John Mearsheimerthis seems to hold true if we look at the behaviour of the great powers over the past decades.

The United States and Germany have both successfully achieved hegemony peacefully but under the implicit — and sometimes explicit — threat to the economic survival of the states dominated and taking advantage of their weakness after a war or crisis. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, Germany supported by a coalition of smaller EU member states demanded a set of economic reforms and policies of Southern European EU member states, Greece in particular.

If Greece would not comply with strict austerity measures, the country would be forced to leave the Economic and Monetary Union EMUthereby closing off lending opportunities and most likely triggering an economic collapse of the country. In effect, the crisis solidified German economic and political hegemony within the Union and support to Germany from a number of small North European countries viewing German hegemony as a bulwark against economic chaos.

For instance, only a few months prior to the annexation of Crimea, Russia offered Ukraine a lucrative economic deal for forgoing closer relations with the European Union including discounted energy prices and a 15 billion US dollar government loan. Thus, viewed through the offensive realist lens peaceful change may be regarded as an often used and cost-effective tool for maximising power.

Like offensive realism, the defensive realist variant of structural realism starts from an assumption of security seeking states in an anarchic international system. They guard the status quo by balancing power in order to maximise the chance of securing survival in a system without a legitimate monopoly of violence, i. Based on this logic, defensive realism has a hard time explaining not only peaceful change, but change in general: However, though left largely underdeveloped by defensive structural realists, the theory points to two important processes of peaceful change in international anarchy: Competition and socialisation constitute a transmission belt between structural effects and states behaviour Thies ; Waltz74—7.

The Power Politics of Peaceful Change: Structural Modifiers in Action Realists do not believe that structure determines state behaviour. The development of communication and transportation technologies has underpinned the development of one globalised international system and has facilitated the increase of societal capabilities including shared norms and institutions.

Following this logic, we might argue that the violent change, i. Viewed through the realist lens, nineteenth century colonisation and twenty-first century globalisation are both essentially a case of great powers expanding their economic base and sphere of dominance, but expansion now takes the form of peaceful change due to technological developments making peaceful change more effective than war in most cases.

The high interaction capacity of the present system intensifies socialisation by speeding up market integration and thereby, at the same time, increasing competition and socialisation Wivel Therefore, one global marketplace makes competition fiercer, and it is more transparent who is winning and who is losing.

Moreover, the high interaction capacity has raised the costs of warfare making security less scarce and replacing security competition with geo-economic competition as the main parameter for great power competition Mastanduno ; Schweller Although accompanied by institutions and regulations of the global marketplace, these institutions are often skewed in favour of the powerful and joined by many third world countries, not because they provide opportunity for growth, but because it is even more costly to be left outside the institutions Gruber Thus, to realists, globalisation is at the same time power politics and peaceful change.

Also, the change in interaction capacity may help us to explain the shift in state practices from hard balancing, i. Agents of Power and Peace: Thus far, we have focused on peaceful change as change by peaceful means illustrating how the logic s of realism may help us to understand why even interest-maximising states in an anarchic international realm dominated by power politics may choose to pursue change by peaceful rather than violent means.

However, for the individual decision-maker or government, peaceful change, like any foreign policy decision or strategy, is a complex task of navigating between structural incentives and domestic values and interests. Therefore, neoclassical realists argue that the response to structural incentives of any given state is conditioned by the clarity of the incentives. Clarity is affected by systemic process variables such as interaction capacity as discussed in the previous sectionand domestic level intervening variables such as strategic culture, the images and perceptions of foreign policy decision-makers, domestic institutions and state-society relations Ripsman, Taliaferro and Lobell By examining the importance and effects of these clusters of variables, neoclassical realism opens realism to a discussion of the agents of peaceful change and the interaction of international and domestic variables.

For instance, we may link these insights to the democratic peace literature and hypothesise that transparent domestic institutions with checks and balances on the exercise of power — such as those found in liberal democratic states — facilitate taking the lead in peaceful change, because these institutions make it harder for state leaders to bluff and more costly not to carry out threats once domestic opinion has been mobilised Kydd ; Lipson This may also help us understand why attempts at peaceful change succeed or fail.

For instance, the massive restructuring of the European economic and political sphere through processes of institutionalisation and integration may be compared with the relative failure of similar projects in regions such as East Asia with comparable economic incentives but uneven democratisation.